RISET FR CIMB 18 APRIL 2013

RISET FR CIMB 18 APRIL 2013 :


1.Autos   | Robust quarter
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
by Cindy EFFENDI, Peter P. SUTEDJA, CFA 

1Q13 car sales were close to a record-high, while motorcycle sales appeared to have recovered despite LTV implementation for sharia financing. Astra lost market share in cars but gained for motorcycles. A mid-term boost for its cars may come from LCGC approval. This explains our upgrade of Astra to Outperform from Neutral. Still, we cut its FY14-15 EPS by 1-3% for downside at Astra Agro and United Tractors. Accordingly, our target price drops to Rp8,800 (from Rp9k), still based on 15x CY14 P/E, +1SD above its 3-year mean. Maintain Overweight on the sector with catalysts from low cost green car approval and Astra remains as our top pick, pioneering the move.

Sector Comparisons :

ASII OUTPERFORM TP 8,800
SMSM OUTPERFORM TP 2,900

(17 APRIL 2013)





2.Banks   | Basel III could weigh on growth
OVERWEIGHT - Maintained
by Trevor KALCIC, CFA, Lydia XU, Hans FAN, CFA 

We think some features of Basel III are ill suited to Asian banking markets and take a cautious view on its adoption across Asia this year. Sector growth could be weighed down by rising liquidity premiums (biggest ST concern), potential balance sheet pressures (mid-term worry) and ongoing constraints on cross-border business (structural). Our base-case FY12-14 sector earnings CAGR is 10.3%. In an alternative scenario, CAGR could slow by 1.5% pts to 8.8%. Banks in Australia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand could be most negatively impacted. Banks in China, India and Indonesia seem better positioned. We Overweight Asian banks with preferences for China, Korea and Indonesia.




--------------------------